Commentary

  • Jennifer Newton

Doc Hines - Covid News & Views - 02 July 2021

The daily statistics show rapidly rising numbers of new cases, but only a very slow but steady rise in hospital admissions and deaths. Most of the new cases come from the unvaccinated, those with only one jab, or someone under 18 years old with no vaccine yet. Then there is where despite two jabs they lack any immunity to Covid 19 and can catch it. Almost all the new cases in England now are due to the Delta variant of the virus.

The last two days have seen between 27k and 28k new positive cases each day and about 1.2 million tests done. There have been 157,000 new cases in the last 7 days. the positive rate is 181.1 per 100k of the population. There were 27 deaths registered today with 22 registered yesterday. The weekly figure is more useful and now stands at 123 in the last 7days.

Hospital data shows a slow but steady rise which at the moment, on its own, does not threaten the health service. However, when you look at the efforts being made in the NHS to catch up with the backlog of routine work it is still working close to capacity. There were 304 people admitted to hospital on 28th June and 259 the day before. On 30th June there were 1,795 in a hospital bed. 300 patients required a ventilator yesterday and 287 the day before.


The cumulative totals for vaccine show with 1st jabs 45,013,503 have been given which is 85.5% of the target. For 2nd jabs, the figure is 33,241,265 or 63.1% of the target population.

This mean 37% are still not immunised and if we add to them the 10% for whom the vaccine does not give immunity. You will realise almost half the adult population remain at risk. This is why we are still very much at risk. We must get many more immunised before we can relax in any way.


The cumulative death rate in India has now officially passed 400,000 mark. This makes it the third-highest behind the USA and Brazil. There is almost certainly significant underreporting in India particularly at the last peak when bodies were just buried on a riverbank or just placed in the water. Remember we have over 60% fully immunised, the figure in India is only 6%. The vaccine is now free for everyone in India.


Here in the EU things have got more difficult as the Germans led by Angela Merkel are trying to politicise the issues. Merkel talks of being able to reduce quarantine restrictions for those from the UK who are fully vaccinated sometime soon, and at the same time claims that the European Medicines Agency has not approved the OAZ vaccine made in India. It is exactly the same as other OAZ vaccines, made in exactly the same way and has been approved for some time. There seems to be no scientific basis for this decision, perhaps it's more to do with losing in the football to England.



There are three batch numbers of the OAZ vaccine that she is refusing to accept. These batches are 412OZ001, 412OZ002 and 412OZ 003 and maybe called Covishield. Have a look at your immunisation card and if you had OAZ vaccine check the batch number. If it's not one of these you can stop worrying. Just put your record somewhere safe again just in case you have to prove it.


There is absolutely no scientific rationale behind another decision that those who have had an OAZ first dose should now have a Pfizer or Moderna 2nd jab. They claim, without offering any evidence, that this gives a better higher level of immunity. The usual international guidance is to give the same vaccine for both doses when possible. This again seems an attempt to promote Pfizer at the expense of OAZ.


Boris Johnson is resisting calls to reduce the stadia capacity for the remaining football matches in the Euros. From the evidence, I have looked at I think he is calculating a relatively small effect on the number of cases.


Following a steep rise in new cases in Portugal of the Delta variant a night curfew from 11pm to 5am has been introduced in 45 districts including Lisborn and Porto. The WHO says only 10% of their rise is due to the football.


I have mentioned before this deadly black fungus that is attacking the critically ill patients in India with Covid. There have been a few cases reported in the UK. Diabetes that is poorly controlled is a contributory factor, as is requiring very high doses of oral or injected steroids, which is vital in the treatment of Covid infections.


For now, stay vigilant, ensure your vaccines are fully taken, and follow Hands, Face and Space. Do not forget the space for your comments, suggestions, or polite arguments, I enjoy your very varied comments.


Stay safe everyone.

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